Laws

Addition Law

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

Bayes’ Theorem

Suppose AA and BB are two events.

P(B∣A)=P(A∣B)×P(B)P(A)P(B|A) = \frac{P(A|B) \times P(B)}{P(A)}

Can only be applied when:

  • The sample space is partitioned into a set of mutually exclusive events: { A1,A2,…,An }\set{A_1,A_2,\dots,A_n}.
  • ∃B⊂S s.t. P(B)>0\exists B \subset S \text{ s.t. } P(B) \gt 0
  • P(Ak∣B)P(A_k|B) is to be calculated
  • At least one of the two sets of possibilities should be given:
    • ∀Ak    P(Ak∩B)\forall A_k\;\;P(A_k \cap B)
    • ∀Ak    P(Ak)\forall A_k\;\;P(A_k) and P(B∣Ak) P(B|A_k)

Multiplication Theorem

P(A∩B)=P(B∣A)×P(A)P(A \cap B)=P(B|A) \times P(A) P(A∩B∩C)=P(C  ∣  (A∩B))×P(A∩B)P(A \cap B \cap C)=P(C\; | \;(A \cap B))\times P(A\cap B)

Law of Total Probability

Relates marginal probablities to conditiional probablities.

Suppose the sample space is partitioned into a countably infinite set of mutually exclusive events: { A1,A2,… }\set{A_1,A_2,\dots}. Then, for an event BB:

P(B)=∑i=1P(B  ∣  Ai)×P(Ai)P(B) = \sum_{i=1} {P(B\;|\;A_i)\times P(A_i)}

Joint Probability

Probability of 2 or more events occuring simultaneously.

For discrete random variables, the marginal probability can be calculated by summing over the joint probability distribution:

P(X=x)=∑yP(X=x,Y=y)P(X = x) = \sum_y P(X = x, Y = y)

For continuous random variables:

PX(x)=∫−∞∞PX,Y(x,y) dyP_X(x) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} P_{X,Y}(x,y)\,\text{d}y
Written by September 29, 2026 2 min read
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